Welcome back to CLEATZ, where prediction markets, player props, and public betting data collide to uncover the smartest bets and the sharpest statistical edges.
Today, we’re breaking down the Super Bowl Champion market on Kalshi, and spotlighting what appears to be real “mispricing” in the Bitcoin low-price for January market
Additionally, you can find our NBA, CBB, NFL data via these links. Our NFL props data will be available on Thursday.
🏈 Super Bowl Champ Trading Value on Kalshi
Evaluating Current Prices
Team | Kalshi % | Implied SB Win Path |
|---|---|---|
Seattle | 39% | ~62% Conf × ~63% SB |
LA Rams | 28% | ~53% Conf × ~53% SB |
New England | 27% | ~52% Conf × ~52% SB |
Denver | 8% | ~28% Conf × ~29% SB |
These are not insane numbers anymore — but relative pricing still matters.
Where the Edge Actually Is Now
① Seattle Is Still the Most Fragile Price
Even in a Final-4 scenario:
39% implies Seattle is meaningfully better than every remaining team
But they still must beat:
A conference finalist
An elite SB opponent from the other conference
Seattle being +11% ahead of LA / NE is aggressive unless:
They are a clear favorite in both games
Injury report stays clean
Weather/matchup variance breaks right
That’s a thin margin of safety at this stage.
② LA Rams + New England = Structural Value Pair
LA (28%) and New England (27%) are priced as near equals, yet:
One of them is guaranteed to reach the Super Bowl
One Super Bowl win cashes
Combined probability = 55% vs Seattle’s 39%
You’re effectively betting:
“Seattle does NOT win two straight games”
— but with two live bullets instead of one.
③ Denver Is Correctly Priced
At 8%:
Denver is clearly the weakest team
But at Final 4, even bad teams have paths
8¢ is neither a slam-dunk buy nor sell
You are better off buying in on Denver in their specific matchup with the Patriots and hope the Broncos score first, thus providing a quick and profitable exit.
Optimal Trade Setups
🟢 Seattle — NO @ 62¢
Why this still works:
You win if Seattle loses either game
Seattle must be the best team twice
Any injury, turnover luck, or matchup issue kills the position
This is now a classic “overpriced favorite in a short tournament” fade.
🟡 Best Long Exposure
Buy BOTH:
LA Rams YES @ 28¢
New England YES @ 27¢
This gives you:
One guaranteed Super Bowl participant
Two independent ways to win
Lower variance than Denver YOLO
Better EV than Seattle YES
Tactical Momentum Trade
If Seattle wins the conference title game:
Price likely spikes to 50–55%
Sell into Super Bowl week hype
Do not hold to kickoff unless hedged
This is a pure sentiment + liquidity trade, not fundamentals.
What Not to Do
❌ Buying Seattle YES at 39¢ to hold
❌ Over-allocating to Denver
❌ Ignoring cross-hedging opportunities between LA /
📉 Kalshi Market: How Low Will BTC Go in January?
There is a TON of value here if you play it right over the next 10 days. We break down the approach below.
Price action:
Sharp step-downs (not smooth consolidation)
Failed bounces
Volatility expanding after downside breaks
→ Classic distribution → markdown transition
Historical Bitcoin Pattern That Matters Here
① Post-ATH “False Plateau” Phase
Seen in: 2013, 2017, 2021
BTC often appears stable near highs after the macro peak — before accelerating lower.
Sideways chop fools dip buyers
Volatility compresses briefly
Then range low breaks → air pocket
➡️ Current chart shows exactly this: flat → sudden step down → weak bounce → lower lows.
② Support Levels Rarely Hold on First Test
In prior cycles:
First major “round number” breaks (e.g. $20k in 2018, $40k in 2022) did not hold
BTC typically overshoots support by 10–25% before stabilizing
Applied here:
$85k = psychological + recent local floor
History says price often trades through these levels, not to them
➡️ This alone supports Below $82.5k and Below $80k as very plausible.
③ Liquidity Cascades Are Fast
Once BTC enters a true risk-off phase:
Forced selling (ETFs, levered longs, miners)
Derivatives liquidations cluster
Price moves faster than probability markets adjust
In 2021–22:
BTC dropped ~18% in <3 weeks
Prediction markets consistently lagged downside
From ~$90k:
$77.5k is only ~14% lower
➡️ Historically not extreme at all for January-style drawdowns
🔥 Why the Tail (Below $77,500) Is Underpriced
Market currently prices only 7% for sub-$77.5k.
But historically:
Once BTC loses its post-ATH range → drawdowns accelerate
Volatility clusters after support breaks, not before
January has produced several waterfall-style moves (2015, 2018, 2022)
Key insight:
Prediction markets tend to:
Price linear moves
Undervalue non-linear regime shifts
This is a regime shift chart, not a pullback chart.
Recommendation by Level (Directional Thesis)
Level | Thesis |
|---|---|
Below $85k | ✅ Base case — already effectively in play |
Below $82.5k | ✅ Strong value if momentum continues |
Below $80k | ⚠️ High-convexity zone — history supports |
Below $77.5k | 🔥 Best asymmetric tail if bear confirms |
Strategic framing:
Treat this as a laddered downside exposure, not a single bet
The worst mistake historically is assuming BTC “won’t go there” once momentum flips
Final Take
Bitcoin does not drift into bear markets — it falls into them.
If prior cycles rhyme:
The lowest-probability outcomes are often the correct ones — just late.
NEXT NEWSLETTER - TOMORROW THURSDAY, JAN. 22:
NFC & AFC Title Game Prop Picks
NBA Prop Winners
Trading weather markets on Kalshi….yes, we are serious!