Welcome back to CLEATZ, where prediction markets, player props, and public betting data collide to uncover the smartest bets and the sharpest statistical edges.
Today, we have your NFC and AFC Title game props cheat sheet, plus updated public betting data for a massive weekend of betting!
🏈 NFC & AFC Title Game Props Cheat Sheet
👉 NFC Championship: Rams at Seahawks
Colby Parkinson (Longest Reception over 12.5): For the 4th week in a row, Parkinson is the strongest overall play on the board. He has hit this line in 100% of his last 5 games and 80% of his last 10. The matchup is excellent, with a 90% DVP L10 rating.
Kyren Williams (Receptions over 1.5): A very safe volume floor. He has cleared 1.5 receptions in 100% of his last 5 games. The matchup is also rated perfectly (100% DVP L5), indicating the Seahawks consistently allow running backs to catch passes.
Kyren Williams (Receiving Yards over 12.5): Correlated with his receptions, this prop has also hit in 100% of his last 5 games.
Sam Darnold (Passing Completions over 19.5): He has an 80% favorable matchup (DVP L5) for completions, suggesting a game script where he may need to throw often or check down efficiently.
👉 AFC Championship: Patriots at Broncos
1. Evan Engram: Receiving Yards (Over 19.5)
This is statistically the strongest play for this game because of the matchup.
The Data:
Matchup Grade: The Broncos defense has an 80% DVP rating over both the last 5 and last 10 games against this position. This indicates they consistently allow yardage to players in Engram’s role.
Recent Form: He has hit this line in 60% of his last 5 games.
Odds: -114 (Implied Probability ~53.3%)
2. Drake Maye: Interceptions (Over 0.5)
Consistency: The data shows a 60% hit rate across all categories (Last 5, Last 10, and DVP). You are getting “plus money” on a prop that has happened more often than not recently.
3. Hunter Henry: Longest Reception (Over 19.5)
A solid secondary option driven by long-term matchup data.
Matchup: The Denver defense has a 70% DVP rating over the last 10 games for allowing long receptions TE1’s.
Consistency: He holds a steady 60% hit rate over his last 5 and 10 games.
📊 NFL PUBLIC BETTING DATA
AFC Championship Betting on DraftKings
Broncos at Patriots
Game | Spread (Handle %) | Total (Handle %) |
|---|---|---|
Broncos vs Patriots | Patriots -4.5 (69%) | Over 42.5 (79%) |
NFC Championship Betting on DraftKings
Rams at Seahawks
Game | Spread (Handle %) | Total (Handle %) |
|---|---|---|
Rams vs Seahawks | Seahawks -2.5 (76%) | Under 46.5 (61%) |
NFL Public Money & Consensus Picks on BetMGM
Game | % of Bets | % of Money | Opening Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Patriots (-4.5) at Broncos | 65% NE | 58% NE | NE -4 |
Rams at Seahawks (-2.5) | 72% SEA | 51% LAR | SEA -2.5 |
🏈 Most Bet Props & TDs (Seahawks–Rams)
(data via BetMGM)
Most Bet Props Overall
① Rashid Shaheed (SEA) Over 1.5 rush yds -145
② Kenneth Walker III (SEA) Over 21.5 rec yds -110
③ Rashid Shaheed (SEA) Under 1.5 receptions +100
④ Kenneth Walker III (SEA) Under 19.5 rush att -105
⑤ Puka Nacua (LAR) Over 4.5 rush yds -130
Anytime TD
① Puka Nacua +115
② SEA D/ST +475
③ Jaxon Smith-Njigba -105
④ Kyren Williams +120
⑤ Colby Parkinson +310
1st TD Scorer
① Puka Nacua (LAR) +700
② Kyren Williams (LAR) +750
③ Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) +600
④ Kenneth Walker III (SEA) +450
⑤ Terrance Ferguson (LAR) +4000
🏈 Most Bet Props & TDs (Patriots–Broncos)
(data via BetMGM)
Most Bet Props Overall
① Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Over 47.5 rush yds -140
② RJ Harvey (DEN) Under 40.5 rush yds -135
③ Demario Douglas (NE) Over 16.5 rec yds -115
④ RJ Harvey (DEN) Over 18.5 rec yds -110
⑤ Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) Under 2.5 receptions -105
Anytime TD
① NE D/ST +450
② Hunter Henry +190
③ Rhamondre Stevenson +110
④ RJ Harvey +125
⑤ Jarrett Stidham +425
1st TD Scorer
① Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) +600
② TreVeyon Henderson (NE) +1000
③ Stefon Diggs (NE) +1000
④ Hunter Henry (NE) +950
⑤ RJ Harvey (DEN) +700
🏀 NBA Props Cheat Sheet Tonight
🔥 Best Overall (Form + Matchup)
Jrue Holiday Over 9.5 Points (-128)
80% L10 with 100% DVP L5/L10. Strongest role + matchup combo on the board.Maxime Raynaud Over 13.5 Points + Rebounds (-136)
90% L10 with stable minutes and usage—excellent floor play.
Strong Secondary Plays
Jerami Grant Over 2.5 Rebounds (-138)
80% L10 with 90% DVP L10—quietly consistent.Royce O’Neale Over 8.5 Points (-104)
80% L5/L10 and 100% DVP L5 at a friendly price.Tari Eason Over 12.5 Points + Rebounds (-130)
80% L10 with balanced production.
Value / Plus-Money Angles
Dennis Schröder Over 10.5 Points (+106)
Same L10 hit rate as the lower line at plus money.Tari Eason Over 8.5 Points (+100)
80% L10; price compensates for variance.
Safest Parlay Anchors
Royce O’Neale Over 8.5 Points
Jrue Holiday Over 9.5 Points
Maxime Raynaud Over 13.5 Points + Rebounds
