Welcome back to Cleatz.com’s NFL Player Props Today, where we break down the smartest Over/Under bets and stat-based edges across the Week 17 slate.
Every line below is based on verified sportsbook data, with prop hit rates, matchup notes, and a dash of wit from your favorite football nerds.
Prop Picks Cheat Sheet for MNF
- Data sorted by implied probability %
- Hit rates L5 and L10
- DvP L5, L10
Prop | Line | Odds | Prob% | L5 | L10 | DVP L5 | DVP L10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Darnell Mooney | Recs | Over 1.5 | -193 | 65.9% | 80% | 60% | 80% | 90% |
Kyren Williams | Recs | Over 1.5 | -172 | 63.2% | 40% | 50% | 40% | 70% |
Puka Nacua | TD’s | Over 0.5 | -161 | 61.7% | 40% | 50% | 60% | 70% |
Terrance Ferguson | Recs | Over 1.5 | -161 | 61.7% | 20% | 20% | 40% | 30% |
Kirk Cousins | Interceptions | Over 0.5 | -160 | 61.5% | 60% | 50% | 60% | 70% |
Kyle Pitts | Recs | Over 4.5 | -152 | 60.3% | 80% | 60% | 20% | 30% |
Puka Nacua | Recs | Over 7.5 | -147 | 59.5% | 40% | 30% | 40% | 30% |
Bijan Robinson | TD’s | Over 0.5 | -132 | 56.9% | 60% | 50% | 20% | 20% |
Bijan Robinson | Recs | Over 4.5 | -127 | 55.9% | 60% | 50% | 0% | 10% |
Colby Parkinson | Recs | Over 3.5 | -127 | 55.9% | 60% | 40% | 40% | 50% |
Drake London | Recs | Over 5.5 | -120 | 54.5% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 50% |
Tyler Allgeier | Rushing Yards | Over 24.5 | -116 | 53.7% | 60% | 40% | 80% | 60% |
Terrance Ferguson | Receiving Yards | Over 22.5 | -115 | 53.5% | 20% | 40% | 20% | 20% |
Bijan Robinson | Rush + Rec Yds | Over 121.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 60% | 40% | 20% | 20% |
Colby Parkinson | Receiving Yards | Over 33.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 40% | 40% | 20% | 30% |
Drake London | Receiving Yards | Over 65.5 | -113 | 53.1% | 60% | 50% | 60% | 40% |
Blake Corum | Rushing Yards | Over 44.5 | -113 | 53.1% | 80% | 60% | 20% | 20% |
Bijan Robinson | Receiving Yards | Over 43.5 | -113 | 53.1% | 60% | 50% | 20% | 30% |
See the full list here: https://cleatz.com/nfl-player-props-today/
NFL Public Bets Today
Tread lightly if you are a fade the public guy after what we saw on Christmas Day and this past weekend. Normally, this would be an auto-fade for me of the Rams, but feels like the public is due for one.
Monday, Dec 29
Game | Spread (Handle %) | Total (Handle %) |
|---|---|---|
Rams vs Falcons | Rams -7.5 (89%) | Over 49.5 (86%) |
Rams–Falcons Betting Update via BetMGM
Most Bet Player Props 🎟️
1️⃣ Kyren Williams (LAR) Over 61.5 rushing yards
2️⃣ Kyren Williams (LAR) Over 1.5 receptions
3️⃣ Bijan Robinson (ATL) Under 4.5 receptions
4️⃣ Blake Corum (LAR) Over 44.5 rushing yards
5️⃣ Drake London (ATL) Over 5.5 receptions
Most Bet Anytime TD Scorer 🎯
1️⃣ Kyren Williams -120
2️⃣ Puka Nacua -165
3️⃣ Matthew Stafford +1750 👀
4️⃣ Bijan Robinson -140
5️⃣ Kyle Pitts +195
Most Bet First TD Scorer 🚨
1️⃣ Kyren Williams (LAR) +600
2️⃣ Puka Nacua (LAR) +450
3️⃣ Bijan Robinson (ATL) +550
4️⃣ Blake Corum (LAR) +1000
5️⃣ Kyle Pitts (ATL) +1200
📈MNF Top Props ALT Line Hit Rates
MNF Rams vs. Falcons Props ALT Line Streaks
• Bijan Robinson — 60+ Rushing Yards (7/L7)
• Tyler Allgeier — 15+ Rushing Yards (5/L5)
• Kyle Pitts — 40+ Receiving Yards (4/L4)
• Blake Corum — 40+ Rushing Yards (4/L4)
• Kyren Williams — 50+ Rushing Yards (4/L4)
• Puka Nacua — 90+ Receiving Yards (3/L3)
• Matthew Stafford — 250+ Passing Yards (3/L3)
• Darnell Allen — 15+ Receiving Yards (3/L3)
• Darnell Mooney — 15+ Receiving Yards (2/L2)
• Drake London — 50+ Receiving Yards (15/L18)
📊Largest PrizePicks MNF Line Moves
Player | Team | Market | Previous Line | Current Line | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tyler Allgeier | ATL | Receiving Yards | 3.5 | 4.5 | +1.0 | +28.6% |
Kyle Pitts | ATL | Receptions | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | +11.1% |
David Sills | ATL | Receiving Yards | 9.5 | 10.5 | +1.0 | +10.5% |
Kyren Williams | LAR | Receiving Yards | 10.5 | 11.5 | +1.0 | +9.5% |
Xavier Watts | ATL | Tackles + Assists | 5.5 | 6.0 | +0.5 | +9.1% |
Tyler Allgeier | ATL | Rush Attempts | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | +7.7% |
Kyren Williams | LAR | Rush Attempts | 13.5 | 14.5 | +1.0 | +7.4% |
Kyle Pitts | ATL | Targets | 7.0 | 7.5 | +0.5 | +7.1% |
Puka Nacua | LAR | Receptions | 7.5 | 8.0 | +0.5 | +6.7% |
Drake London | ATL | Receiving Yards | 63.5 | 67.5 | +4.0 | +6.3% |
Davis Allen | LAR | Receiving Yards | 17.5 | 18.5 | +1.0 | +5.7% |
Blake Corum | LAR | Rush Attempts | 9.5 | 10.0 | +0.5 | +5.3% |
Kyren Williams | LAR | Rushing Yards | 63.5 | 66.5 | +3.0 | +4.7% |
Matthew Stafford | LAR | Pass Completions | 21.5 | 22.5 | +1.0 | +4.7% |
Kyren Williams | LAR | Fantasy Score | 12.5 | 13.0 | +0.5 | +4.0% |
Kyren Williams | LAR | Rush + Rec Yards | 78.5 | 81.5 | +3.0 | +3.8% |
Puka Nacua | LAR | Receiving Yards | 105.5 | 108.5 | +3.0 | +2.8% |
Bijan Robinson | ATL | Rushing Yards | 73.5 | 75.5 | +2.0 | +2.7% |
Blake Corum | LAR | Rush + Rec Yards | 48.5 | 49.5 | +1.0 | +2.1% |
Prediction Markets This Week
What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
