Welcome back to the CLEATZ player props, public bets data, and prediction markets, where we break down the smartest bets and stat-based edges.
Every line below is based on verified sportsbook data, with prop hit rates, matchup notes, and a dash of wit from your favorite data nerds.
NOTE: Our deep-dive into NFL Wildcard Weekend Props will be sent on Thursday.
📊NFL Wild Card Round Public Betting — DraftKings
Saturday, Jan 10
Game | Spread (Handle %) | Total (Handle %) |
|---|---|---|
Rams vs Panthers | Rams -9.5 (63%) | Over 46.5 (75%) |
Packers vs Bears | Bears +1.5 (76%) | Over 45.5 (62%) |
Sunday, Jan 11
Game | Spread (Handle %) | Total (Handle %) |
|---|---|---|
Bills vs Jaguars | Bills -1.5 (57%) | Over 51.5 (72%) |
49ers vs Eagles | Eagles -3.5 (75%) | Over 45.5 (75%) |
Chargers vs Patriots | Patriots -3.5 (63%) | Over 46.5 (84%) |
NFL Public Betting Picks on BetMGM
Game | % of Bets | % of Money | Opening Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Rams (-10) at Panthers | 52% LAR | 52% LAR | LAR -10 |
Packers at Bears (-1) | 71% CHI | 65% CHI | CHI -1.5 |
Bills (-1.5) at Jaguars | 54% JAX | 52% JAX | BUF -1.5 |
49ers at Eagles (-3.5) | 65% SF | 60% SF | PHI -3.5 |
Chargers at Patriots (-3.5) | 68% NE | 66% NE | NE -3.5 |
Texans (-3.5) at Steelers | 74% HOU | 80% HOU | HOU -3 |
📊Largest PrizePicks NFL Line Moves This Week
📊CFP Playoffs Public Bets - via DraftKings
Thursday, January 8
Miami (FL) vs Ole Miss
Team | Spread | Spread Handle | Spread Bets | Total | Total Handle | Total Bets | Moneyline | ML Handle | ML Bets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Miami (FL) | -3.5 | 52% | 47% | 52.5 | 27% | 49% | -180 | 47% | 46% |
Ole Miss | +3.5 | 48% | 53% | 52.5 | 73% | 51% | +150 | 53% | 54% |
Friday, January 9
Oregon vs Indiana
Team | Spread | Spread Handle | Spread Bets | Total | Total Handle | Total Bets | ML | ML Handle | ML Bets |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oregon | +4 | 14% | 18% | 46.5 | 43% | 62% | +150 | 32% | 25% |
Indiana | -4 | 86% | 82% | 46.5 | 57% | 38% | -180 | 68% | 75% |
🏈 CFB Playoffs Semifinals Cheat Sheet
🟢 Top Tier
Riley Nowakowski (Indiana) O1.5 Receptions
66.4% implied probability
80% L5 / L10
Elite matchup: 100% DVP (L5)
Harrison Wallace II (Ole Miss) O3.5 Receptions
60.6% implied probability
80% L5
100% DVP L5 / 70% DVP L10
🟡 Secondary Value
Malik Benson (Oregon) O43.5 Receiving Yards
100% L5 hit rate
Strong defensive matchup (80% DVP L5)
Roman Hemby (Indiana) O55.5 Rushing Yards
Solid consistency (60–70%)
Strong run matchup: 80% DVP L5 & L10
⚠️ Higher-Risk / Better Odds
Trending upward with improving matchup (70% DVP L10)
Roman Hemby (Indiana) O59.5 Rushing Yards (+104)
The table below displays the implied probability percentage, prop hits rates over Last 5 & 10 games, and the DvP rates over last 5 and 10 games
Game | Prop | Line | Odds | Prob% | L5 | L10 | DVP L5 | DVP L10 |
|---|
Riley Nowakowski | ORE at IND | Receptions | Over 1.5 | -198 | 66.4% | 80% | 80% | 100% | 80% |
Dakorien Moore | ORE at IND | Receptions | Over 2.5 | -160 | 61.5% | 60% | 70% | 60% | 60% |
Dakorien Moore | ORE at IND | Receiving Yards | Over 30.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 60% | 70% | 60% | 60% |
Dakorien Moore | ORE at IND | Receiving Yards | Over 29.5 | -122 | 55.0% | 60% | 70% | 60% | 60% |
Roman Hemby | ORE at IND | Rushing Yards | Over 55.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 80% |
Kewan Lacy | MIA at MISS | Receptions | Over 1.5 | -198 | 66.4% | 40% | 70% | 60% | 60% |
Malik Benson | ORE at IND | Receiving Yards | Over 43.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 100% | 60% | 80% | 60% |
Harrison Wallace II | MIA at MISS | Receptions | Over 3.5 | -154 | 60.6% | 80% | 60% | 100% | 70% |
Cayden Lee | MIA at MISS | Receiving Yards | Over 29.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% |
Roman Hemby | ORE at IND | Rushing Yards | Over 59.5 | +104 | 49.0% | 40% | 60% | 60% | 70% |
