Welcome back to Cleatz.com’s NFL Player Props Today, where we break down the smartest Over/Under bets and stat-based edges across the Week 17 slate.
Every line below is based on verified sportsbook data, with prop hit rates, matchup notes, and a dash of wit from your favorite football nerds.
NFL Prop Picks Cheat Sheet for Sunday Dec. 28
- Data sorted by implied probability %
- Hit rates L5 and L10
- DvP L5, L10, and season
See the full list here: https://cleatz.com/nfl-player-props-today/
NFL Public Bets Today
Very rare to see such lopsided action on the entire. Tread lightly if you are a fade the public guy after what we saw on Christmas Day.
Sunday, Dec 28
Game | Spread (Handle %) | Total (Handle %) |
|---|---|---|
Cardinals vs Bengals | Bengals -7.5 (79%) | Over 53.5 (71%) |
Seahawks vs Panthers | Panthers +7 (75%) | Over 42.5 (68%) |
Steelers vs Browns | Steelers -3 (78%) | Over 34.5 (85%) |
Saints vs Titans | Saints -2.5 (86%) | Over 39.5 (61%) |
Buccaneers vs Dolphins | Buccaneers -6 (79%) | Over 45.5 (60%) |
Jaguars vs Colts | Jaguars -6 (80%) | Over 48.5 (81%) |
Patriots vs Jets | Patriots -13.5 (92%) | Over 42.5 (59%) |
Giants vs Raiders | Raiders +1.5 (71%) | Over 41.5 (74%) |
Eagles vs Bills | Bills -1.5 (69%) | Over 43.5 (73%) |
Bears vs 49ers | 49ers -3 (74%) | Over 52.5 (81%) |
Monday, Dec 29
Game | Spread (Handle %) | Total (Handle %) |
|---|---|---|
Rams vs Falcons | Rams -7.5 (89%) | Over 49.5 (86%) |
📈NFL Week 17 Top Props ALT Line Hit Rates
🔥 Rush + Receiving Yards
• Omarion Hampton — 60+ Rush+Rec (6/L6)
• James Cook — 90+ Rush+Rec (6/L6)
• Tony Pollard — 60+ Rush+Rec (4/L4)
• Saquon Barkley — 90+ Rush+Rec (3/L3)
• Chase Brown — 70+ Rush+Rec (2/L2)
• Michael Carter — 60+ Rush+Rec (2/L2)
• Bijan Robinson — 100+ Rush+Rec (2/L2)
• Rico Dowdle — 50+ Rush+Rec (10/L11)
• Breece Hall — 60+ Rush+Rec (6/L8)
• Chuba Hubbard — 60+ Rush+Rec (14/L20)
🧤 Receptions
• Jakobi Meyers — 4+ Receptions (6/L6)
• Jalen Coker — 3+ Receptions (6/L6)
• Keenan Allen — 3+ Receptions (5/L5)
• AJ Barner — 3+ Receptions (4/L4)
• Chase Brown — 3+ Receptions (4/L4)
• Kyle Pitts — 4+ Receptions (4/L4)
• Mack Hollins — 3+ Receptions (3/L3)
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 6+ Receptions (3/L3)
• Puka Nacua — 7+ Receptions (3/L3)
• Dallas Goedert — 3+ Receptions (3/L3)
🏃 RB Alternate Lines
• De’Von Achane — 60+ Rush Yds (10/L10)
• Zach Charbonnet — 25+ Rush Yds (9/L9)
• Bijan Robinson — 60+ Rush Yds (7/L7)
• Omarion Hampton — 60+ Rush+Rec (6/L6)
• James Cook — 100+ Rush+Rec (6/L6)
• Christian McCaffrey — 50+ Rush Yds (5/L5)
• Kyle Monangai — 30+ Rush Yds (5/L5)
• Tyler Allgeier — 15+ Rush Yds (5/L5)
• Tony Pollard — 60+ Rush Yds (4/L4)
• Chuba Hubbard — 30+ Rush+Rec (4/L4)
🧱 Tight Ends
• Juwan Johnson — 25+ Rec Yds (9/L9)
• Dallas Goedert — 20+ Rec Yds (8/L8)
• Chigoziem Okonkwo — 15+ Rec Yds (6/L6)
• Brenton Strange — 25+ Rec Yds (5/L5)
• AJ Barner — 25+ Rec Yds (4/L4)
• Kyle Pitts — 40+ Rec Yds (4/L4)
• Dalton Schultz — 30+ Rec Yds (2/L2)
• Ja’Tavion Sanders — 2+ Receptions (2/L2)
• Tyler Johnson — 20+ Rec Yds (10/L11)
• Dawson Knox — 15+ Rec Yds (10/L11)
🎯 Wide Receivers
• Cooper Kupp — 20+ Rec Yds (13/L13)
• Nico Collins — 50+ Rec Yds (8/L8)
• Jakobi Meyers — 4+ Receptions (6/L6)
• Jalen Coker — 20+ Rec Yds (6/L6)
• A.J. Brown — 40+ Rec Yds (6/L6)
• Keenan Allen — 20+ Rec Yds (5/L5)
• DeVonta Smith — 30+ Rec Yds (5/L5)
• Justin Jefferson — 15+ Rec Yds (4/L4)
• Mack Hollins — 3+ Receptions (3/L3)
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 70+ Rec Yds (3/L3)
🎯 Quarterbacks
• Caleb Williams — 10+ Rush Yds (9/L9)
• Matthew Stafford — 2+ Pass TDs (9/L9)
• Trevor Lawrence — 200+ Pass Yds (5/L5)
• Geno Smith — 1+ Pass TD (5/L5)
• Bryce Young — 1+ Pass TD (5/L5)
• Jalen Hurts — 175+ Pass Yds (5/L5)
• C.J. Stroud — 175+ Pass Yds (4/L4)
• Sam Darnold — 225+ Pass Yds (3/L3)
• Justin Herbert — 200+ Pass Yds (2/L2)
• Brock Purdy — 250+ Pass Yds (2/L2)
📊Largest PrizePicks NFL Line Moves
Player | Opp | Prop | Prev. Line | Current Line | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trevor Lawrence | @ IND | Passing + Rushing Yards | 260.5 | 271.5 | +11 |
Tyler Huntley | @ GB | Passing Yards | 150.5 | 160.5 | +10 |
Christian McCaffrey | CHI | Rushing + Receiving Yards | 114.5 | 122.5 | +8 |
Shedeur Sanders | PIT | Passing + Rushing Yards | 193.5 | 201.5 | +8 |
Geno Smith | NYG | Passing + Rushing Yards | 208.5 | 216.5 | +8 |
Bryce Young | SEA | Passing Yards | 192.5 | 198.5 | +6 |
Zay Flowers | @ GB | Receiving Yards | 45.5 | 51.5 | +6 |
Malik Willis | BAL | Passing + Rushing Yards | 198.5 | 204.5 | +6 |
Tee Higgins | ARI | Receiving Yards | 56.5 | 61.5 | +5 |
Tyler Huntley | @ GB | Rushing Yards | 21.5 | 26.5 | +5 |
Malik Willis | BAL | Passing Yards | 159.5 | 164.5 | +5 |
Darren Waller | TB | Receiving Yards | 26.5 | 31.5 | +5 |
Jalen Hurts | @ BUF | Rushing Yards | 25.5 | 30.5 | +5 |
Parker Washington | @ IND | Receiving Yards | 41.5 | 45.5 | +4 |
Zach Charbonnet | @ CAR | Rushing + Receiving Yards | 39.5 | 43.5 | +4 |
Saquon Barkley | @ BUF | Rushing + Receiving Yards | 98.5 | 102.5 | +4 |
Devin Singletary | @ LV | Rushing Yards | 28.5 | 32.5 | +4 |
Joe Burrow | ARI | Passing Yards | 263.5 | 267.5 | +4 |
Ashton Jeanty | NYG | Rushing Yards | 69.5 | 73.5 | +4 |
Prediction Markets This Week
What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
Notional Volume: $4.01B Total (+5% WoW)
Total notional volume climbed to $4.01 billion, up 5% from last week’s $3.8B. Not exactly moon territory, but impressive for a week where half the market was offline carving ham.
Leading the pack:
Opinionlabs – $1.43B (down from $1.53B, perhaps the holidays slowed the wash-trading discourse)
Kalshi – $1.34B (up from $1.11B, regulated Santa delivered)
Polymarket – $1.19B (up from $1.15B, crypto’s most reliable reindeer closing the gap)
The little elves:
predict.fun – $37M
Trylimitless – $6M
MyriadMarkets – $1.9M
Overall: +5% WoW. Not explosive, but steady.