Welcome back to the CLEATZ player props, public bets data, and prediction markets, where we break down the smartest bets and stat-based edges.
Every line below is based on verified sportsbook data, with prop hit rates, matchup notes, and a dash of wit from your favorite data nerds.
Miami vs. Ohio State:
🏈 Prop Picks Cheat Sheet for Indiana vs. Alabama
✅ Top Data-Backed Plays
Riley Nowakowski OVER 19.5 receiving yards
Only play with 80% L5
Low yardage bar + favorable usage
Strongest recent-trend edge on the board
Omar Cooper Jr. OVER 3.5 receptions
Highest implied probability (61.8%)
Volume-based prop with consistent role
📈 Solid Secondary Options
Germie Bernard OVER 49.5 / 50.5 receiving yards
Back-to-back lines showing 60% L5 + L10
Market clustered → suggests stable projection band
Fernando Mendoza OVER 1.5 passing TDs
Second-highest implied probability
Correlates well with Bernard/Cooper overs if stacking
⚠️ Lower-Confidence / Volatile
Ty Simpson passing yards
Elijah Sarratt receiving yards
Roman Hemby higher rushing alt (61.5)
These show weaker recent hit rates despite similar pricing.
Player | Prop | Line | Odds | Prob % | L5 | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Omar Cooper Jr. | Receptions | 3.5 | -162 | 61.8% | 40% | 60% |
Fernando Mendoza | Passing TDs | 1.5 | -136 | 57.6% | 40% | 60% |
Roman Hemby | Rushing Yards | 59.5 | -128 | 56.1% | 40% | 60% |
Riley Nowakowski | Receiving Yards | 19.5 | -122 | 55.0% | 80% | 60% |
Germie Bernard | Receiving Yards | 49.5 | -120 | 54.5% | 60% | 60% |
Germie Bernard | Receiving Yards | 50.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 60% | 60% |
Kaelon Black | Rushing Yards | 58.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 60% | 60% |
Roman Hemby | Rushing Yards | 61.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 40% | 60% |
Omar Cooper Jr. | Receiving Yards | 48.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 40% | 60% |
Fernando Mendoza | Passing Yards | 220.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 40% | 50% |
Isaiah Horton | Receiving Yards | 34.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 60% | 40% |
Jam Miller | Rushing Yards | 28.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 40% | 50% |
Ryan Williams | Receiving Yards | 30.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 40% | 60% |
Ty Simpson | Passing Yards | 240.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 20% | 50% |
Daniel Hill | Rushing Yards | 29.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 60% | 40% |
Elijah Sarratt | Receiving Yards | 58.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 20% | 50% |
Fernando Mendoza | Rushing Yards | 21.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 40% | 50% |
Josh Cuevas | Receiving Yards | 34.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 60% | 40% |
- Data sorted by implied probability %
- Hit rates L5 and L10
🏈 Prop Picks Cheat Sheet for Oregon vs. Texas Tech
✅ Top Data-Backed Plays
Top Tier (Strongest Signals)
Cameron Dickey anytime TD (0.5)
• 59% implied
• 100% L5 / 90% L10
• Clear red-zone usage + consistency edgeJ’Koby Williams 1.5 receptions
• 63.5% implied
• 80% L5 / 70% L10
• Low bar, steady involvement
High-Floor Yardage Plays
Caleb Douglas 49.5 receiving yards
• 60% implied
• 70% hit rate last 10Cameron Dickey 14.5–15.5 receiving yards
• Both lines showing 80% L5 / 70% L10
• Market hasn’t fully adjusted yet
QB Angle
Dante Moore 231.5 passing yards
• 80% L5 / 70% L10
• Modest implied probability vs recent form = value zone
Player | Prop | Line | Odds | Prob % | L5 | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Coy Eakin | Receptions | 2.5 | -184 | 64.8% | 60% | 70% |
J’Koby Williams | Receptions | 1.5 | -174 | 63.5% | 80% | 70% |
Caleb Douglas | Receiving Yards | 49.5 | -152 | 60.3% | 60% | 70% |
Cameron Dickey | Anytime TD | 0.5 | -145 | 59.2% | 100% | 90% |
Terrance Carter Jr. | Receptions | 3.5 | -138 | 58.0% | 60% | 50% |
Dante Moore | Passing TDs | 1.5 | -132 | 56.9% | 60% | 60% |
Cameron Dickey | Receiving Yards | 14.5 | -128 | 56.1% | 80% | 70% |
Reggie Virgil | Receiving Yards | 44.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 80% | 70% |
Dante Moore | Passing Yards | 231.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 80% | 70% |
Dante Moore | Rushing Yards | 5.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 60% | 60% |
Cameron Dickey | Receiving Yards | 15.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 80% | 70% |
Malik Benson | Receiving Yards | 35.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 80% | 60% |
Jordon Davison | Rushing Yards | 36.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 80% | 70% |
J’Koby Williams | Rushing Yards | 48.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 80% | 50% |
Coy Eakin | Receiving Yards | 34.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 40% | 50% |
Terrance Carter Jr. | Receiving Yards | 37.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 60% | 50% |
Behren Morton | Passing TDs | 1.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 60% | 50% |
Caleb Douglas | Receiving Yards | 55.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 60% | 60% |
🏈 Prop Picks Cheat Sheet for Ole Mis vs. Georgia
✅ Top Tier Plays
Kewan Lacy OVER 0.5 TD
Perfect 5/5 L5 and 9/10 L10
Strongest combo of recent form + pricing on the board
Trinidad Chambliss OVER 247.5 passing yards
80% L5, 90% L10
Despite modest implied odds, trend strength is elite
📈 Strong Secondary Options
Kewan Lacy OVER 66.5 rushing yards
Consistent 80% hit rate across L5 & L10
Pairs well with his TD prop for correlation
Dae’Quan Wright OVER 2.5 receptions
Solid 70% L10
Low volume threshold keeps downside limited
⚠️ More Volatile / Market-Priced
Zachariah Branch receptions
Dillon Bell yardage/receptions
Gunner Stockton TD markets
These are priced aggressively but lack strong recent hit consistency.
Player | Prop | Line | Odds | Prob % | L5 | L10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zachariah Branch | Receptions | 5.5 | -188 | 65.3% | 40% | 50% |
Cayden Lee | Receptions | 2.5 | -174 | 63.5% | 40% | 50% |
Kewan Lacy | TDs | 0.5 | -150 | 60.0% | 100% | 90% |
Dae’Quan Wright | Receptions | 2.5 | -146 | 59.3% | 40% | 70% |
Harrison Wallace II | Receptions | 3.5 | -140 | 58.3% | 60% | 50% |
Nate Frazier | TDs | 0.5 | -140 | 58.3% | 60% | 40% |
Dillon Bell | Receiving Yards | 24.5 | -140 | 58.3% | 20% | 40% |
Dillon Bell | Receptions | 2.5 | -140 | 58.3% | 20% | 30% |
Oscar Delp | Receptions | 1.5 | -130 | 56.5% | 60% | 50% |
Gunner Stockton | Passing TDs | 1.5 | -122 | 55.0% | 60% | 50% |
Gunner Stockton | TDs | 0.5 | -115 | 53.5% | 20% | 40% |
Trinidad Chambliss | Passing Yards | 247.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 80% | 90% |
Chauncey Bowens | Rushing Yards | 27.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 40% | 60% |
De’Zhaun Stribling | Receiving Yards | 42.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 60% | 60% |
Kewan Lacy | Rushing Yards | 66.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 80% | |
Trinidad Chambliss | Rushing Yards | 26.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 40% | 60% |
Cayden Lee | Receiving Yards | 38.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 60% | 70% |
Dae’Quan Wright | Receiving Yards | 29.5 | -114 | 53.3% | 60% | 70% |
Thursday, Jan 1 - CFP Public Bets - DraftKings
Game | Spread (Handle %) | Total (Handle %) |
|---|---|---|
Oregon vs Texas Tech | Oregon -2.5 (65%) | Over 51.5 (59%) |
Alabama vs Indiana | Indiana -7 (63%) | Over 47.5 (61%) |
Ole Miss vs Georgia | Georgia -6.5 (89%) | Over 55.5 (62%) |
📊NFL Public Bets This Week
NFL Week 18 Public Betting (DraftKings)
Saturday, Jan 3
Game | Spread (Handle %) | Total (Handle %) |
|---|---|---|
Panthers vs Buccaneers | Panthers +2.5 (79%) | Under 43.5 (70%) |
Seahawks vs 49ers | 49ers +1.5 (78%) | Over 49.5 (79%) |
Sunday, Jan 4
Game | Spread (Handle %) | Total (Handle %) |
|---|---|---|
Packers vs Vikings | Vikings -6.5 (61%) | Over 36.5 (93%) |
Colts vs Texans | Texans -10 (65%) | Over 39.5 (86%) |
Browns vs Bengals | Bengals -7.5 (93%) | Over 44.5 (68%) |
Cowboys vs Giants | Cowboys -3.5 (74%) | Over 51.5 (68%) |
Saints vs Falcons | Falcons -3 (63%) | Over 43.5 (91%) |
Titans vs Jaguars | Titans +12.5 (62%) | Over 47.5 (60%) |
Dolphins vs Patriots | Patriots -10.5 (52%) | Over 45.5 (74%) |
Chiefs vs Raiders | Chiefs -5.5 (84%) | Under 36.5 (72%) |
Lions vs Bears | Bears -3 (92%) | Over 50.5 (50%) |
Jets vs Bills | Bills -7 (81%) | Over 38.5 (75%) |
Commanders vs Eagles | Eagles -7 (60%) | Over 41.5 (86%) |
Cardinals vs Rams | Cardinals +7.5 (68%) | Over 46.5 (51%) |
Chargers vs Broncos | Chargers +12.5 (86%) | Over 37.5 (82%) |
Ravens vs Steelers | Ravens -3.5 (59%) | Over 41.5 (90%) |
📊Largest PrizePicks NFL Line Moves This Week
Player | Team | Date | Market | Prev.Line | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lamar Jackson | BAL | Sun Jan 4, 6:20 pm | Passing Yards | 203.5 | 214.5 | +11 |
Christian McCaffrey | SF | Sat Jan 3, 6:00 pm | Rush + Rec Yards | 111.5 | 117.5 | +6 |
Kirk Cousins | ATL | Sun Jan 4, 11:00 am | Passing Yards | 214.5 | 220.5 | +6 |
Aaron Rodgers | PIT | Sun Jan 4, 6:20 pm | Pass + Rush Yards | 211.5 | 216.5 | +5 |
Kenneth Walker | SEA | Sat Jan 3, 6:00 pm | Rush + Rec Yards | 58.5 | 62.5 | +4 |
Quinn Ewers | MIA | Sun Jan 4, 2:25 pm | Passing Yards | 202.5 | 206.5 | +4 |
Jared Goff | DET | Sun Jan 4, 2:25 pm | Passing Yards | 250.5 | 253.5 | +3 |
Mark Andrews | BAL | Sun Jan 4, 6:20 pm | Receiving Yards | 28.5 | 31.5 | +3 |
Juwan Johnson | NO | Sun Jan 4, 11:00 am | Receiving Yards | 49.5 | 52.5 | +3 |
Bucky Irving | TB | Sat Jan 3, 2:30 pm | Rush + Rec Yards | 79.5 | 82.5 | +3 |
Christian McCaffrey | SF | Sat Jan 3, 6:00 pm | Rushing Yards | 67.5 | 69.5 | +2 |
Chuba Hubbard | CAR | Sat Jan 3, 2:30 pm | Rush + Rec Yards | 39.5 | 41.5 | +2 |
Drake London | ATL | Sun Jan 4, 11:00 am | Receiving Yards | 67.5 | 69.5 | +2 |
Lamar Jackson | BAL | Sun Jan 4, 6:20 pm | Rushing Yards | 21.5 | 23.5 | +2 |
Bryce Young | CAR | Sat Jan 3, 2:30 pm | Pass + Rush Yards | 222.5 | 224.5 | +2 |
Jaylen Warren | PIT | Sun Jan 4, 6:20 pm | Rush + Rec Yards | 61.5 | 63.5 | +2 |
Keaton Mitchell | BAL | Sun Jan 4, 6:20 pm | Rushing Yards | 16.5 | 18.5 | +2 |
Cooper Kupp | SEA | Sat Jan 3, 6:00 pm | Receiving Yards | 32.5 | 34.5 | +2 |
Bucky Irving | TB | Sat Jan 3, 2:30 pm | Rushing Yards | 57.5 | 59.5 | +2 |
